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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."