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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.